All posts by Stephen

Conservation, Countryside, experience, Perthshire, Trees

2025 Changing Times

Winter will soon roll into Spring and a time of growth and renewal in nature. The snowdrops are great heralds of this and it is always a pleasure to see them. I am lucky to have some great displays of them nearby – and particularly Friar’s Den at Scone Palace Estate is always a good display. However, snowdrops are not native to the UK, having been introduced from Europe 300 years or so ago.

The snowdrop is not only a welcome sight but has medicinal properties too. It does raise the question for nature in general, do we value it more for aesthetics? for what it can do for us? what it can be sold for / economic value? And in today’s world does economic value out-Trump 🙂 the other ways of appreciating and valuing nature? The ‘environmental or ecosystem-services‘ provided by nature are largely under-valued and this impact’s decisions made on approving change of land use, eg in the past planting commercial forest on land that is important grassland or peat bog habitat and now huge solar-farm developments on agricultural land instead of on buildings and brown-field sites.

The winter in Scotland has also seen illegal wildlife release, lynx and some wild boar, widely covered in the news. This was undoubtedly irresponsible and unhelpful and can particularly entrench views and make it more difficult to discuss options with those opposed. Scare-mongering on possible negative impact, and the occasional actual negative event, is common with any reintroduction of a predator – there are continuing issues with birds of prey poisoning for example.

Going back to the snowdrops…. at the time they first appeared in the UK what many today photograph and think are the ‘beautiful Scottish hills’ were largely covered in trees and looked very different. There are places on a smallish scale that ‘rewilding’ is now occurring. The question that often arises is how will it be paid for? If the ecosystem services were given true value – including for example, holding water, limiting flooding and soil degradation – then there is a payback but its not the get rich quick that exploiting the environment brings. Ultimately act for today and tomorrow will pay the price, so act for tomorrow and all can benefit (but more equitably) and the billionaires won’t expand their fortunes on the same scale!

To this end, in a very small but effective way, I have been delighted to get involved in some tree-planting this year, as part of our Perth and Kinross Countryside Trust ‘Tree For Every Child’ project. Nearly 1,000 trees have been planted by school children and the community with us, on a site by the Dunkeld House Hotel Land Rover experience, as well as more trees around St Magdalene’s Hill, Perth, the Bunkhouse at Glassie Farm, Aberfeldy and school grounds.

The year ahead is going to be challenging for many of us, not least because of political change elsewhere. I hope that both Gaza and Ukraine get the chance to peacefully rebuild – not just the homes for people but also for nature. It’s known that engagement with the environment, nature and wildlife is good for mental health and well-being. So the more the better.

Conservation, Countryside, Perthshire, Training & Development, Trees, Workshop

Autumn Reflections

Autumn is a season of change and brings amazing colours, especially where I live in Perthshire, Scotland. It is a time to enjoy and celebrate, despite knowing the cold months of winter are coming.

Trees are under-appreciated and often ignored, unless they are ‘in the way’, present a hazard, fall after a big storm… but at this time of year many people do acknowledge them, enjoy their variety, size, colour and simple aesthetic beauty. You don’t have to know or understand the science and process of leaf change to appreciate it, and its freely available to all – although I know some can find getting into the countryside more difficult.

Being Chair of Perth and Kinross Countryside Trust [PKCT] I have a role, alongside my fellow Trustees, in supporting and encouraging access to the countryside. We are fortunate to have a brilliant small staff team and the support of various Trusts and organisations to pay for their work. So thanks to them. Many people will enjoy a country walk, cycle or ride, or just a stop at the views and not know that PKCT has had a hand in helping them. Our public-facing activity is gaining profile, especially beginning to attract a younger audience, with ‘Discovery & Engagement’ activity including a Watch group, tree-planting and a Youth Council. So I am hopeful for the future.

Encouraging an interest in nature and the countryside can also begin with a small patch of garden, the local park, having a pet to care for, visiting a zoo or farm park.

At the start of October I was in South Wales and made a return to the lovely Meadows Wildlife Park near Caerphilly. It was great to work with the staff team and help develop their public engagement, education and communication skills.

The Park’s rebrand in late Spring has been very successful with lots more visitors through the summer and there is continued development of the site for enhanced animal and visitor experience. The staff team are friendly and enthusiastic and it was great to work with staff from a range of roles. It was also so nice to receive a message of thanks afterwards that included:

“Your deliverance of excitement and enthusiasm teaching the team to be confident and inspire interest in educating and welcoming our visitors really nailed the brief.”

Conservation, experience, Network and Sharing, Training & Development

Sharing experience and expertise

July saw the first in-person National Zoo Academy Conference at Sparsholt College. (The first such meeting was held online last year). This was a great opportunity for students/graduates and invited guests to share expertise and knowledge and celebrate achievement in the field of animal management and ‘zookeeping’.

I was honoured to be an invited guest for the day and to deliver a keynote talk on reflections upon my career and embracing change over the years. From black and white TV and plugged in phones, through cassette tapes to digital technology, computers and smartphones. However, communication and animal care remain ‘real hands-on’ activities, that have also advanced and developed over the years.

It was great to listen to the short research reports – DMZAA & degree graduates showing the benefits of combining both practical experience and qualifications in zookeeping. The DMZAA course was largely developed by Andy Beer at Sparsholt 20+ years ago – who attended to give a short history – utilising the Certificate in Animal Management C&G course (previously a National Extension College course) that was developed by ABWAK, the Federation of Zoos (now BIAZA) and others in the 1980s. Today the course has a strong ‘volunteer’ version CMZAAV and has overseas ‘international’ graduates too. It also was used as the Foundation of the Zoo Apprenticeship programme and was a key contributor to and benchmark of the EAZA European Professional Zookeeper Qualification Framework.

Zookeeping often brings to mind the large traditional zoo, however, many keepers work in the diversity of smaller collection across the country. So in July, I was pleased to help The Meadows Wildlife Park, Caerphilly, South Wales, in developing their education and conservation roles. This park, established in 2019, has grown from a ‘farm park’ to one that now features other species, including prairie dog, kookaburra, emu, capybara, rainbow lorikeet and porcupine.

The Meadows focuses upon the visitor experience and opportunity to engage with various animals and pursuit of good welfare. The small staff team, supported by volunteers, have great enthusiasm and dedication and over time the Park should be able to make a useful contribution to both education and conservation locally as well as encourage responsible animal care and consideration for the environment.

Conservation, experience, Network and Sharing, Training & Development, Workshop

Spring – History, Countryside & Training

The seasons change again, although we can’t rely on specific dates or equinoxes to fix these changes. Climate change is having an impact, weather patterns and an unusually wet winter are being commented upon and recognised. However, action to mitigate these changes is still slow and the subject of political position and decisions.

The snowdrops looked wonderful all through February with a great display as usual at Scone Palace estate near Perth. This is also the ancient crowning place of Scottish kings (including Macbeth and Robert the Bruce) – where the Stone of Scone was used before being taken by Edward I to England. It was repatriated to Edinburgh Castle in 1996. As I write this the Stone has moved from Edinburgh to its home in the new Perth Museum.

It has been another good start to the year for the Perth and Kinross Countryside Trust, that I am honoured to Chair. The River Tay Way project has a new ‘hub’ public facility in Aberfeldy. Trees planted last year and this are growing and the Perthshire Nestbox project has delivered boxes to schools across the county (Fossoway Primary illustrated), and much more. Our funders and small staff team enable us to achieve a great deal for the people and countryside of Perth & Kinross.

This year also marks the 50th anniversary of ABWAK, the UK zookeepers association. I have been a member since 1987 and served on Council 2003-17, and was delighted to be invited to attend and speak at the Symposium held at ZSL London Zoo at the start of March. It was made extra special with the attendance of Jon Barzdo, founder of ABWAK. History is a key feature of the Regents Park site, including the ‘Lubetkin Penguin Pool’ (made from reinforced 1930s concrete that features heavily at Dudley Zoo). The ZSL Library was also good to visit again – not least to see some of the historic books and documents, including a 1st edition of Darwin’s On the Origin of Species’.

This March I was pleased to be asked to return to Longleat in Wiltshire to run my staff Communication & Presentation Skills workshops. It is always a pleasure working with the staff and team here supporting their public engagement, conservation messaging, customer care and professional development. The interactive workshop is always FUN and in the words of Darren Beasley, Head of Animal Operations:

“Longleat benefits not only from his expert knowledge but also receives a bespoke training package created on education, presentation and communication skills for our animal department gang. Those attending receive a full day of engaged learning, new skills and leave with confidence to deliver presentations to a high standard.”

This month I was also able to do a ‘guest training talk’ online to the team working with Luke Harding at Mandai Wildlife, Singapore Zoo & associated sites. It’s great that we can use technology to deliver training like this across the world. It is more effective in person and on site, however, there are benefits that can be gained from remote ‘teaching’ too.

Conservation, experience, Qualification, Training & Development, Trees, Workshop

New Year Resolutions?

The end of another year and it has been a challenging one in many parts of the world, not least with continuing war in Ukraine and the awful escalated Israel-Palestine conflict. At the same time the global threats to biodiversity and impending effects of climate change and seemingly weak response from world governments, don’t give much cause for optimism. We’ve also seen the power of ‘nature’ with flooding, landslides, powerful storms etc. – and there is stronger evidence to suggest these weather patterns are linked to human impacts on our planet (climate change especially).

Recently however, I have been heartened to see and be involved with the ‘Tree for Every Child’ initiative of the Perth and Kinross Countryside Trust that I currently Chair. It was great to help plant trees at Glassie Farm above Aberfeldy. Glenlyon Primary school had already planted some trees. Then in December, I joined pupils from St Madoes Primary in planting fruit trees in their village. Hopefully these young people will see their trees grow over the years (and get free fruit).

In November, it was good to get a big ‘fix’ of optimism by working with the latest group of students on the Durrell Conservation Academy DESMAN course in Jersey. As usual it was a fun few days covering theory and practice of environmental/conservation education and learning about the work of these inspiring people. The group this time were from Bangladesh, Colombia, Indonesia, Madagascar, Oman, Philippines, Saudia Arabia, Singapore and UK.

Meanwhile, a new group of zookeepers and volunteer keepers began their work on the BIAZA – Sparsholt College DMZAA and CMZAAV online course and its great to be an assessor on year 1 once again.

So as Christmas comes and goes and we celebrate the arrival of 2024, what new resolutions should we have…. be happy, be positive, be optimistic and look forward to continuing to enjoy nature around us and celebrate those that are helping and making a difference.

Conservation, Network and Sharing, Qualification, Training & Development

Just one tree…

As the beautiful Autumn season arrives the felling of one tree – the Sycamore Gap at Hadrian’s Wall – filled news headlines and sparked anger, outrage and outcry. This senseless act should be a reminder that people are disconnected with nature and natural systems. At the same time many people care… but perhaps the sentimental affection for one tree is misplaced or needs some additional focus?

The Sycamore was ‘special’ because it stood alone as a feature of the landscape (possibly deliberately planted as such). There are many ‘special trees’. For me, and associated with the Perth & Kinross Countryside Trust ‘Perthshire big tree country’, the ancient Birnham Oak is special (and incidentally has some ancient sycamores near by). However, it is not alone, it exists in woodland on the banks of the River Tay, and further along is Neil Gow’s oak revered as the place the 18th century fiddler composed and played.

A tree is a ‘unit’ of a woodland or forest, a habitat. The outcry should be levelled at destruction of these habitats for human development (roads, rail eg HS2, building development, monoculture etc). Connection to nature can be ’emotional’ and ‘spiritual’, at the same time there is need for a regard to ecology and what is appropriate planting and management. However, encouraging more people to enjoy and access the countryside responsibly, hopefully re-builds connection and support for trees and ‘added value’ they give us.

Our connection to nature can also be promoted and enhanced through well designed and carefully thought out ‘experiences’ in wildlife parks. At Jimmy’s Farm & Wildlife Park near Ipswich there is a new ‘rare breeds farm’ area, through the native woodland – where some pigs can be seen – and to the fields (with rare breed pigs, goats, sheep, Suffolk punch horses, Highland cattle).

It was an honour to be asked to speak at the UK’s first KEEPERFEST event held at Jimmy’s Farm & Wildlife Park in early September. The event included talks from Jim Doherty, Adam Henson, Nick Baker and a host of ‘industry experts’, as well as practical workshops and stands.

The event nicely complimented the work that ABWAK have been doing for many years in helping keepers to network and develop their skills.

Over the summer I also wrote a short-course on Environmental Education for learndirect and this is available for people to study online as a validated 3 module short-course: https://www.learndirect.com/course/level-3-award-environmental-educator

Training & Development

Training for the future of planet Earth

There are many challenges facing our planet and the environment. Fortunately there are environment, conservation and nature champions making a difference and new generations of inspiring conservationists. I’m honoured to play a small part in training and supporting people and giving them ideas for sharing their passion and enthusiasm for nature with others.

This April I spent a few days with the latest participants on the Durrell Endangered Species Management Graduate Certificate [DESMAN] in Jersey.

The Spring 2023 DESMAN group from 11 countries – Brazil, Cabo Verde, Cameroon, Canada, Colombia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Madagascar, Mauritius, & Seychelles

“Teaching” conservation education theory and practice in a very short space of time is a challenge too, so my approach is largely one of mixing ‘lecture’ with example and active participation – and demonstrating through presentation techniques how everyone can contribute to conservation communication and action.

The latest DESMAN group have just completed their 12 week course and through the carefully constructed programme by Durrell Conservation Academy leave equipped to play a greater role in conservation back in their home countries and elsewhere. Each group is different but have shared goals, ambitions and aims appropriate to the context within which they work and I always enjoy the new perspectives and points of view they bring, alongside inspiration from their dedication and optimism that change is possible.

Durrell Conservation Academy, Les Noyers, Jersey

Apart from working with the students, visiting the Zoo and the island, I am always grateful to be part of this course delivery not least having been inspired by Gerald Durrell all those years ago – and actually attending the opening of the training centre (academy) in 1984.

Opening slide to my presentation at ABWAK 2023, Yorkshire Wildlife Park

Ever since I first began working in zoos I have been involved with ABWAK, the Association of British and Irish Wild Animal Keepers, and I enjoyed being a speaker at the Annual Symposium held at Yorkshire Wildlife Park in March. My talk focused on the ‘business of talking’ in zoos and the fact that many keeper talks can be improved by focusing more on specific outcomes, using stories and editing out excessive “facts”, especially in this day and age where most visitors carry all the basic info in their pockets via smartphone and internet search.

At this time I am also busy working with the BIAZA approved Sparsholt College Zookeeper and Aquarist Apprenticeship students who are doing the module on Customer Care, Visitor Experience & Learning which I lead and wrote the assignments for. This is their last module in the c.2 year apprenticeship and so soon they will undertake the end point assessment.

After my years of experience it is still great to be training the future generation of keepers, through the apprenticeship, my continued involvement in Sparsholt’s DMZAA and CMZAAV, and through ABWAK and running workshops.

experience, Training & Development, Uncategorized

On Safari in Sharjah, UAE

Sharjah Safari is the world’s largest safari park outside of Africa and it has been an honour to play a small part in the educational development of this amazing Park which has just celebrated a year of operation.

eland in one of the reserves

Initial plans for the safari park were put into action around 8 years ago. I first heard about it a couple of years later and after putting forward thoughts on education and staff training in 2018-19, I became directly involved in 2021 and have just been out to Sharjah again for a couple of weeks to help review education work so far and encourage continued development.

this baobab is an amazing lifelike ‘model’; there are over 100 live baobabs on site

The park is part of the vision of HH Sheikh Dr Sultan bin Mohammad Al Qasimi, ruler of Sharjah, who wants to protect the different environments of the Emirate, raise awareness and engage people in their local environment, culture and history of links with Africa. The design and construction was a huge undertaking overseen via the ruler’s office, the Environment and Protected and Areas Authority [EPAA], a team of ex pat staff, many of whom had been working with EPAA already and the expertise of zoo design consultancy company Maguari-One .

I have visited safari style zoos in Europe, USA, Asia and Australia and been to Africa (many countries) and led a safari in East Africa so my expectations for this development were flavoured by this. Sharjah Safari is the closest to a ‘real safari’ that I have seen and is truly a great achievement for all involved. Covering 8 sq km it is truly massive and divided into different habitat/geographic zones. The 100,000+ trees (many acacia) and landscape make it a realistic representation. The high standards of animal care and presentation of animals is also very natural and only in a few areas do you see fencing etc.

African boma

In 2021 I helped create the Sharjah Safari education strategy and was involved in supporting development of the education team and initial training of the team of Emirati guides and staff, but the park was still being completed and animals not yet settled in. Now this month it was great to see everything, animals out on the ‘plains’ and in the reserves and to be taken on safari. It is to the credit of the organisation that the safari park is not a “commercial theme park” and whilst visitors are catered for well, the safari experience is akin to the real thing, as you go on a driven tour in dedicated vehicles with a guide.

some of the Emirati education team at one of my training workshops

This visit I was pleased to see the education team have done lots of activities in year one, despite many challenges, and the guides are beginning to develop their abilities. A schools programme has also got underway very successfully and will expand. With the team we reviewed the strategy and areas of responsibility and discussed exciting plans for continued development. I was also pleased to work with some of the Emirati staff, including a few from other EPAA visitor centres.

SICFAB conference hosted in Sharjah Safari

At the same time on this visit I was delighted to be an invited guest at the annual Sharjah International Conservation Forum for Arabia’s Biodiversity joining guests who work across Arabia, and with the topic of ‘Genetics & Conservation’ the forum was led by former colleagues from RZSS in Scotland 🙂

Into Africa – Birds of Africa aviary (one small part of this huge aviary)

Sharjah Safari includes representation of key African ‘zones’ – Sahel, Savannah, Serengeti, Kalahari, Ngorongoro and others that include giraffe (Moremi) and elephant (Niger Valley). The “Into Africa” first zone of the park includes a huge aviary, a representation of Madagascar and Aldabra, the Zanzibar village and a traditional African boma (farm), a view over part of the Sahel and an amphitheatre animal demonstration, and all this is accessible on foot with a basic ‘Bronze’ ticket (£9 ad/£3.40 ch). Silver or Gold tickets are required for the main safari drive around and special areas (and give access to Into Africa). The Silver ticket is safari by truck and a stop at the Safari Camp half way through. Gold is by a smaller ‘typical’ real safari luxury vehicle and includes a stop in the Serengeti zone as well (Silver: £27 ad/£11 ch; Gold £62.50 ad / £27 ch). Overall the experience can be 4 hours.

Serengeti area – spot the lion

This February the weather included some rain before I arrived and an average temperature in week one of 24-26 C and in week two 29-33C. So it was nice to be hot but comfortable. The hottest months June, July and August can see temperatures of 45C+ at this time the park is closed. The irrigation systems and natural gravel bed mean the environment copes and animals have shade, water and appropriate care. The elephants that are here, for example, come from an arid area and are used to hot dry conditions but also have showers, shade and food supply through the summer. A calf was born recently.

A great herd of elephants – their area is huge, shown here is one tiny part as viewed from safari vehicle

Sharjah Safari shows that a really good visitor experience and good animal ‘exhibit’ and welfare can be created in the Middle East, given a large budget but careful consideration of the environment and design. The exciting challenge ahead is embedding the educational opportunities into the staff training, visitor experience, raising awareness, supporting conservation and behaviour change. I will be watching to see how this amazing place matures over the years to come.

waterbuck…. this picture could so easily have been taken in the wild

Thanks to the Sharjah Safari team, EPAA and all those involved.

experience, Network and Sharing, Training & Development, Workshop

Plant a Tree & Sow a Seed for Conservation

Happy New Year.

Bookings now being taken for all my talks and workshops in 2023 – see Talks and Services section of the website for a range of options. (Available across the UK and abroad).

Another year has passed and we look forward to the next. 2022 was one of many contrasts, from heat wave to big freeze, the passing of the Queen, and prime minister to prime minister (and again). Of course the dreadful invasion of Ukraine by Putin will scar the year’s memory.

Thankfully there were some good things in 2022 – some reported in previous blogs. I was very happy to return to Durrell Conservation Academy, Jersey, in November to work with a new group of Diploma in Endangered Species Management (DESMAN) students from around the world. Participants this time were from Brazil, Montserrat, St Lucia, Indonesia, Colombia, South Africa, Costa Rica, Seychelles, Philippines, Tanzania and Papua New Guinea.

The 2nd DESMAN group in Jersey this year

The enthusiasm and commitment of these students is always great and we had fun exploring theory and practice of conservation education. The weather (for me) was good, some rain showers, but generally mild, whereas the DESMAN group said it was too cold 🙂 Back in their home countries they will make a difference in a wide diversity of projects and conservation initiatives.

PKCT Patron Cameron McNeish & Discovery, Learning & Engagement Officer, Catherine Leatherland demonstrate the ground prep for tree-planting with Kinloch Rannoch Primary pupils

In December I had the honour of becoming the Chair of the Perth & Kinross Countryside Trust and was delighted to take part in a tree-planting with pupils from Kinloch Rannoch Primary School. The young trees (whips) donated by the Woodland Trust and also marking the celebration of the Queen’s Jubilee and now in her memory as part of the Queen’s Green Canopy, are part of our ‘Tree for Every Child in Perthshire‘ project. It was great to see the pupils enthusiasm as they all planted a tree in their local park. Great to think these trees will be there for their children to play around in years to come.

We are often faced with ‘negative’ and bad news stories, so the simple act of planting a tree is a positive conservation action that can make a difference, help in mitigation of climate change, encourage biodiversity and wildlife, as well as contribute to the community. Sowing wildflower meadows, having areas set aside in gardens etc are also to be encouraged.

With PKCT we are particularly focused upon people’s access and enjoyment of trees and the countryside, and Perthshire is a great area to get out and explore. I look forward to many days out and about across the county, the rest of Scotland and further afield in 2023.

Network and Sharing, Uncategorized

Changing Times & Challenges

Autumn has been stunning at home in Perthshire, Scotland and I have enjoyed seeing the trees and colours change as the weeks passed by through October especially. Being a Trustee of the Perth and Kinross Countryside Trust (PKCT) I encourage others to experience and explore this wonderful region and enjoy the great outdoors (at any time of year).

It was good to help represent PKCT on the ‘stand’ at Scotland The Big Picture conference held in Perth, featuring many case studies of rewilding and connectedness to nature. Whilst we have some wonderful wild outdoor spaces, its also important to acknowledge the landscapes that are artificially maintained, eg grouse moors and river systems where trees have been ‘taken out’ and of course there is now a good open discussion about the animal species that need to be in our habitats – beavers are back, white-tailed eagles, kites and ospreys are back… but what about lynx? wolf? bear? and others.

Acharn Falls, near Loch Tay, Kenmore, Perthshire, Scotland

Autumn is always a time of change in nature and the beauty we see soon fades into the grey and more monochrome winter to come. I’m reminded that this time last year I was in the United Arab Emirates – where these seasons have no bearing, and I am thankful to be resident here, to experience all the seasonal changes, whilst able to visit other places with different climate and conditions.

COP27 in Egypt brings world attention to climate change once more, after what for the UK was an incredibly hot summer and may be the hottest year on record. However, the challenge of climate change is one that politicians and some companies still don’t recognise as critical to our future requiring action day on day, not just when media focus on a gathering to discuss it .. again! Autumn may well be very different in one or two generations time unless action is taken now.

Talking of politics… what on earth is happening? The UK is going through prime ministers and ministers like its just a game and this is no entertaining ‘game of thrones’ for the rest of us, it has had serious economic impact. The change we are facing is not one we expected even after the disaster of Brexit and challenge of covid or impact of the war in Ukraine. Many people, businesses and zoos face crippling rises in bills whilst other multi-nationals profits soar. Capitalism is broken and in its current incarnation is not a model for freedom and democracy.

ZooStephen activity has been ongoing but facing challenges too. In the last few months I have been doing a bit ‘extra’ on my voluntary work as a Trustee with both PKCT and the Dudley & West Midlands Zoological Society. It is an honour and privilege to be able to support and help these charities in their work and share some of my knowledge and expertise from the past 35 years working in conservation education.

Dudley Zoo Education Centre, Charlie the macaw & inset – native species sign (bug hotel)

I was also honoured to be asked to do a guest blog for Wild Welfare with my thoughts on education. Primarily I focused on the fact ‘traditional’ fact-based learning is not the approach we need to improve welfare and conservation, its more about emotional engagement https://wildwelfare.org/education-animal-welfare/

Sparsholt College has some great ‘zoo’ teaching resources

Meanwhile a new group of Apprentice Zookeepers began their course with Sparsholt College and I spent a morning with them in early October giving them an overview of zoo history, aims and objectives to welcome them to the course and profession. I continue to act as an assessor on the national zookeeper course DMZAA, and particularly being assessor for the Certificate version created for volunteer zookeepers.

This is indeed a time of change and challenge. It is uncertain what 2023 and beyond will have in store.